Author: Colin James

A new "Wintringham doctrine"?

Extract from comments to seminar by the Centre for Public Law, 6 August

At noon on 11 July an extraordinary event took place in Room G005 in Parliament. There, at the request of the head of the public service, Michael Wintringham, senior officers of the Ministries for the Environment and of Agriculture and Forestry briefed news media on a matter of great importance to the outcome of the election due 16 days later. When later I asked Mr Wintringham if he had established a new doctrine with this initiative, his answer was perfect public service opacity: that was for people like me to debate. read more

Where to now for a 21 per cent National party?

What happens in the National party, now that it is at 21 per cent?

First off, it would probably help to slaughter a sacrificial lamb — or mutton, as the case may be.

Michelle Boag was until the campaign a plus: an attraction for better candidates, a catalyst for renewal of electorate chairs, the party’s engineroom, and a sharpener of the organisation. read more

Local and customised: voters of the future

Who owns the under-30s vote? Nandor Tanczos, say the Greens. This icon of Greenery is anti-establishment, modern, different and attractive.

But will the Greens own these people when they get to be 40-somethings, then 50-somethings, when they are the establishment of the future? Only if they offer them something more than Nandor’s youth, something that resonates deep down. read more

Three challenges for Helen Clark

Three huge challenges face Helen Clark in this second term. They are challenges which dwarf her achievements in the first.

These past two and a-half years she has eased the pain of revolution. The 1990s are now definitely behind us. Even though it was the 1980s-90s policies that halted the economic slide, most people feel relieved. read more

The election of four quarters

It was an election in four quarters.

First quarter: Helen Clark is back in government, with flexible options and a 2.5 per cent rise in share of the vote from election night 1999. And Labour has a higher seat count: 52 against 49.

As she pointed out on Saturday, that rise puts Clark alongside Michael Joseph Savage in 1938 and David Lange in 1987. read more

A slight rightwards shift

Free trade agreements are safe. So is the lifting of the genetic modification moratorium if Labour wants it. Labour has support on its right.

Helen Clark got the next best thing to a majority on Saturday: a support party to balance off the Greens. The wonderchild of the election, Peter Dunne’s United Future will lend a slightly rightwards lean to her second administration. read more

The day the triffids upset a royal progress

Heaven’s above, it’s Peter Dunne. And where have the Greens biodegraded to? What ate Helen Clark’s majority? What is left of a 65-year tradition of right-of-centre conservatism?

This election campaign went Through the Looking Glass into Wonderland. A White Rabbit here. A Queen of Hearts there. Distorting mirrors everywhere. Lead actors shrinking and expanding before our eyes. read more

Is this the election that transforms MMP?

It hasn’t gone to plan. The point of having an election now instead of at the normal October-November time was to give Helen Clark an outright majority.

Not enough people have got the point. They have told pollsters they might vote for small parties, Laila Harre’s Alliance now included.

Clark might yet get her majority. It is touch and go. The positive speeches, lofty visions and authoritative poses she promised on Sunday might do the trick — though not if she upstages those messages with more telegenic putdowns, as she did on Sunday of Harre. read more

The Big Game in this election

For 50 years till 1999 the National party ruled this country. Now Helen Clark wants Labour’s turn. That’s the big game on Saturday.

Labour had only walk-on parts in government during National’s half-century. The score was 38-12 to National. In 1996 there was even talk of Labour declining into a niche party. read more

A prize fight

It’s a brains trust contest: superbright Helen Clark versus double-degree Bill English.

It’s also a contest of two at-ease crowd-minglers: hearts must be won as well as minds.

And it’s a contest of two very resilient characters — though very differently so. Respect, trust and confidence must also be earned. read more