Labour's Maori seats: alliance or absorption?

Australians habitually think of New Zealanders as backblock islanders, to be joked about at a bit more than Tasmanians. But Canberra is the place to find yokels right now.
Government and politics got to such a state in Australia last year that senior businesspeople were saying to New Zealand counterparts: “We wish we could have your government.” John Key and Bill English go over a treat there. read more

Balancing the books not enough any more

This month the Treasury will publish its third long-range fiscal projections. They will be one reflection of the fact that we are in a period of great social, and therefore political — and fiscal — change.

There will be three main elements to the projections, which go out to 2060.

First, the change now under way in the age structure of the population — proportionately more older and fewer younger people — poses significant revenue and spending challenges, starting this decade. read more

Gone fishing — but for what exactly?

On Saturday Labour catches the long east fish again. Or so it reckons — or needs to reckon. If the fish escapes Labour’s net a hunger will set in.

And history tells us that if hunger turns to starvation, good souls can turn self-destructive or worse.

The first rule about by-elections is that not much can be read into them about the country’s state of mind. The second rule is that each party can read self-serving tea-leaf wisdoms into the result. read more

Who are the class warriors now?

Labour used to be called the “class warfare” party. But it is now at risk of sharing that title — with the National party.

The latest addition to a series of workplace deregulatory law changes proposes that workers who strike or are locked out can be replaced. That builds on a change allowing proportionate docking of pay for strikes or go-slows. A raft of other law changes, some still before Parliament, make it increasingly difficult for employees to combine to negotiate wages and conditions. One, on treatment of workers when a contract is sold or transferred, is even opposed by a business lobby, the Building Services Contractors. read more

Dunne the cameo. Now for Reserve Bank reality

Another sparkling cameo on Friday and the curtain falling on a 30-year political performance, most likely for good. As we blink out of the political theatre into the dull winter daylight the Reserve Bank is grimly waiting.

Back in 1994 Peter Dunne’s ambition was to build a centre force. He oscillated between the two big power centres, twice in each side’s ministries. But even under MMP voters vote for or against a government (or make a statement against the governments on offer). read more

A toast to the Queen: inequality rules

Yesterday was the official birthday of the most unequal person in our realm, the Queen. Inequality reigns, you might say.

Inequality also rules. The Queen is above politics. Inequality is embedded in politics. It will be a dividing line in next year’s election.

The cabinet is clear about its dominant objective: more and faster GDP growth. To that end, for example, it is radically reshaping the Resource Management Act and trampling over local councils, especially council staffs whom one senior minister calls “zealots” who stifle enterprise. read more

Can No 3 work with No 2 to be No 1?

June is the Greens’ usual conference month. These days they are more than a curiosity. Eighteen months from now Greens might be in a cabinet for the first time.
That is not a forecast. There is a long, winding, bumpy road between this halfway point in the parliamentary term and the election, probably November 2014. If National can fix its political management, it still has the advantage. read more

Lining up Greens for a role in the cabinet

Two years ago at its Queen’s Birthday weekend conference the Green party agonised over whether to go into the government if asked. There will be no such agony this coming weekend — at least not at the leaders level.
Metiria Turei and Russel Norman are clear: if their side of politics gets the numbers in the next election they will be in a Labour-Green cabinet, provided only that they do not have so few MPs they lack real influence. read more