After 2014’s election in a bubble, 2015 has been a year in political suspension.
Opinion polls shuffled: National only a couple of dips from high 40s, Labour just back over 30, Greens 11-12, New Zealand First around 7, the rest in tiddler territory.
There was a frisson in March when National bumbled the Northland by-election. Winston Peters’ win gave electoral voice to many provinces’ muttered assertions of government neglect.
On Thursday Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler will again tell you that if you have money to invest, buy a house to rent out. Economic orthodoxy tells him to keep interest rates very low to get inflation up.
But is economic orthodoxy still right? Some uncertainties stalked conferences last week of government economists and on productivity.
The government has a “social investment” programme. But how active an investor is it overall?
The quotation marks around “social investment” reflect questionmarks over the “forward liability investment approach” at its core. That approach essentially aims to avoid future fiscal costs with action now.
On Friday a few score current and former MPs and partners will over dinner commemorate a signal political event: the election of the first Labour government.
This was at a time of unstable global politics, soon to generate a world war, and economic disequilibrium after a deep depression.
Friday’s celebration (coming soon before a shadow cabinet reshuffle) has been got up by Stuart Nash, great-grandson (by adoption) of Sir Walter Nash, 14 years Finance Minister and three years Prime Minister.
The short story last week was John Key’s teenlike lash-out under pressure over Malcolm Turnbull’s treatment of deportees. That reaction to pressure is becoming a pattern.
It is unbecoming to him and to the country, which, also teenlike, he calls Newzealn.
Rob Salmond, Labour’s resident political scientist and campaign numbers guy, mined the advice of Lynton Crosby (of Crosby/Textor) to London mayor Boris Johnson to suggest Key’s attack on Labour for “backing rapists” was to divert attention by throwing a “dead cat” on the table.
Ushers at Labour’s weekend conference wore fluorescent yellow jackets. The subliminal message: roadworks in progress.
The roadworks already done were evident in a much tidier, more stable and cheerier, even enthusiastic, atmosphere than for years. When the works are finished, will it be a road to power?
[This is as originally drafted. A correction to the first few paragraphs appears at the bottom of the 10 November column.]
Suddenly last week Steven Joyce announced a geotechnical investigation for a harbour upgrade at Opotiki to service an aquaculture venture. For years the government has stayed aloof. Why the shift?
On Thursday Graeme Wheeler will nudge you again, not in words but by his positioning: if you have money to invest, buy a house.
In a major speech on October 14 Wheeler trailed another official cash rate (OCR) cut.
He also said, significantly, that monetary policy “can affect the level of distribution of income”. He did not specify how but conservative commentators have: towards the well-off.
It’s Labour Day next Monday. What’s the point nowadays?
Once there was tradition: organisation and regulation for decency and dignity for those who got their sustenance from work for others.
The Council of Trade Unions (CTU) is in that tradition. It held its biennial conference last week.
It farewelled president Helen Kelly, gravely ill but still sparky on the last day of her eight years at the top: fearless and tenacious, a “complete pain in the arse” for opponents but always with a disarming smile, Labour leader Andrew Little said at the conference.
The loudest words in Steven Joyce’s shiny new National Statement of Science Investment (NSSI) are “as fiscal conditions allow”. Does that actually align with “investment”?
First, note the very word “investment” suggests a shift in cabinet thinking from its “spending” fixation.