Category: Otago Daily Times

One interesting number in the Christchurch East by-election is Conservative Leighton Baker’s 487. The better Conservatives do countrywide from here on, the more chance of a National-led third term — and thus that National’s regulatory changes will bed in.

Baker’s 487 was 3.7 per cent, twice his 1.8 per cent electorate vote in the 2011 election. A National optimist might extrapolate from that a supportive Conservative contingent next year of four or five seats, if compliant National voters give Colin Craig an electorate. read more

Australia is in trouble with Indonesia for stupidly spying on its president. Can New Zealand help?

Two events last week and one this week offer pointers.

Event one last week: Steven Joyce’s light-bulb flash that exporters wanting to sell well in China must know the language and understand the way of life. read more

No child deserves a bad start in life. That principle is edging into policy.

A child of one is the child of all. That principle probably held good on the savannah at the dawn of humanity when, in the daily challenge to survive, losing a child was a high cost.

Investing in children pays a dividend in good and productive citizens. That principle has been slow to work into policy. It needs a different economics from the small-state orthodoxy of the past three decades. read more

Think of Europe. Americans helping Angela Merkel with her phone calls. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy in economic and social trouble. Month-to-month crises in the Eurozone. A region in a muddle, past its best.

Behind this veil of woes there is a Europe that is gradually, if haltingly, becoming more of a piece and less a haggle of disparate parts, more visible abroad as an entity and driving big trade deals. read more

Square these two facts from the Labour’s conference.

1. The conference voted on Sunday to construct its list to ensure at least 50 per cent of those elected in 2017 are women.

2. The landslide-winning new Christchurch mayor and former senior Labour cabinet minister Lianne Dalziel, officiating at the opening, was in the second row behind four men on the Labour side at the Ngai Tahu welcome on Friday evening. read more

How’s this for kitsch: “Warm workers greetings” (cf “warm Pacific greetings”)? That was David Cunliffe’s opener at the Council of Trade Unions conference on October 9. So, more such palaver at the Labour party conference this coming weekend?

Cunliffe’s CTU speech also had much of his trademark declaiming and strumming of policy chords the (not very many) delegates wanted to hear. read more

John Banks and Len Brown are short-run: excitable politics. Houses and superannuation are long-run: serious policy. In serious-land fiscal and monetary moguls are under fire for a tax structure and low interest rate settings that favour investing in houses, not economy-building vehicles.

The Commission for Financial Literacy and Retirement Savings (CFLRS — was the Retirement Commission) and the insurance and finance firms’ Financial Services Council (FSC) upped the debate this month. Add that to the Treasury’s long-term fiscal projections in July. Political pressure is building. read more

The United States touts itself (very debatably) as the oldest continuous nation-state democracy. So perhaps it is not surprising that its Congress has had a senior moment.

The United States has a chronic federal fiscal problem which at some point it will have to address with higher taxes (many Democrats) or lower spending (many Republicans) or both (many middle-ground Democrats and Republicans). read more

Should local bodies bother about children? Could the cabinet agree?

The Every Child Counts coalition of major not-for-profits has signed up 200-plus local election candidates to commit to pushing for their districts to be internationally accredited by UNICEF as “child-friendly”.

That includes “working to support every child’s right to a standard of living that meets their needs by reducing health, education and income disparities”, starting with a “living wage” for council and contractors’ employees. It requires more “council investment in children and young people, particularly in the early years” and “building support for quality education”, accessible recreation and cultural facilities and child-friendly transport. Plus “planning and policy development that includes children’s voices”. read more

In Australia the proportion of first-home buyers taking out mortgages is near a decade low and the proportion of rental investors near a decade high. Sound familiar?

Low interest rates in theory stimulate businesses to borrow, invest and make jobs. Money borrowed to buy houses does boost furnishing and appliance sales and some renovation and small business owners borrow against their houses for capital. But most mortgage borrowing doesn’t directly do much for productive investment. read more