The reason the National party is not on the way to oblivion or even minor party status is that its roots go too deep and too wide. With water, fertiliser and judicious nurturing, it will recover. The real question is: what will it recover to?
Start with a simple proposition: that most voters are conservative with a small-c. They don’t want too much change and they don’t want danger.
At the heart of this government is a paradox: it has set a bold target and a strategy that calls for boldness but it makes a virtue of “incremental” policy, the very antithesis of boldness.
The target is 4 per cent a year growth in gross domestic product (GDP). That is better put as 2.5 per cent a year growth in GDP per capita, which takes out the impact of migration and workforce changes.
Where’s this global warming Pete Hodgson goes on about? Those of us shivering in points south want action.
Instead we get glum sermonising reminiscent of 1950s presbyterian preachers, whose joyless mien Pete’s long face and furrowed brow uncannily resemble.
Actually, Pete is not joyless. A twinkle of his ready smile and you know you are not in the company of one of those deeply sad people, the apocalyptic environmentalists.
Susan Baragwanath organises the education of teenage mothers seeking a second chance. Christine Fernyhough organises special education for gifted children from low-income homes.
Both are insiders, members of the wealth and power elite. When they arm-wrestle obdurate, rule-bound bureaucrats, they stand a fair chance of winning. Their networks can mobilise considerable human and financial resources. Beware such people. They do good.
Not enough babies. Maybe it’s time to emigrate? Nearly half of us want no more Asian immigrants, say Insight pollsters, and the trend of dislike is steeply up. Winston Peters is on to a winner.
Certainly, he and his senior MPs made a meal of it at the weekend at his party’s convention, swamping attempts by some to extend New Zealand First’s appeal beyond the immigration ghetto.
Globalisation is good for you — but it needs a lot of improvement. So says journalist Philippe Legrain in a readable new book which could usefully top every executive’s, politician’s and protester’s list to take to the beach this summer.
Open World: The Truth about Globalisation is a definition, defence and dissection of the phenomenon that has stirred passions for and against across the globe.
Over the next two weekends two important smaller parties will remind National activists how badly their party has bled.
New Zealand First will celebrate its rise from the dead this weekend. The next weekend United Future will meet in search of a party.
New Zealand First represents a strand of opinion — on immigration — that is at odds with the majority.
Right now, if she hadn’t jumped the gun midwinter, Helen Clark might be heading towards, or have just recently obtained, the majority she once coveted, or a result close to it.
A mid-October or early November election would have conferred a powerful benefit on Labour compared with the July one. Genetic modification would not bitten so hard.
When a blokey icon company like DB Breweries takes an interest, maybe “sustainable development” and “triple bottom line” are edging into the business mainstream.
DB had human resources general manager Mark Campbell at the Business Council for Sustainable Development’s conference last week. Campbell is in charge of developing a triple bottom line report over the next year.
The President of You Know Where flies round in Air Force 1. Our equivalent is a sort of Air Force 0.15: a crate held together with chewing gum and rubber bands. A great advertisement.
The Prime Minister sensibly flies commercial.
The National party feigns shock/horror. That is the party that cut defence spending 30 per cent in GDP terms during the 1990s. Had it not, the army might have had some radios and ground transport that worked and clapped out planes replaced.