Category: Pre-ODT Columns

MMP means “more meddlesome parties”. So some think who want shot of mixed-member proportional voting so the big old parties can have a freer hand. But this election the small party in the spotlight does not depend on proportional votes.

The Maori party, which might be the pivot in post-election negotiations, wins electorate seats, not list seats, so it doesn’t depend on MMP. In fact, those seats could be pivotal even under first past the post (FPP): in 1946-69 and in 1957-60 the then four Maori seats were critical to Labour governments’ majorities. read more

When central bankers in important countries panic in unison, is it time to reach for the tranquilisers? When the central bank of this unimportant country assures you yet again that our, mainly Australian, banking system is sound, do you twitch?

And does it calm you when an important campaigner for Prime Minister tells the Reserve Bank it should cut the official interest rate? Is that “prime ministerial” sure-footedness in crisis? Is that a cue to shift back from smooth guy John Key to tough guy Helen Clark? read more

Back in the early 1980s Sir Robert Muldoon used to grump that it was “not a good time to be in government” round the world because economies were in trouble. Now is also such a time. Or is there a silver lining?

Muldoon knew the political cost of a soggy economy: after a landslide win in 1975 his National party scored fewer votes than Labour in 1978 and 1981, staying in office only by dint of quirks in the voting system. By 1984 the economy was in such serious trouble — partly because he had administered the wrong medicine — that, rather than try to write a budget, he called an early election, which he lost in a landslide. read more

In July 1984 a bustling bunch of 30-40-somethings took over the Beehive and turned policy upside down. They are all out of politics now and a new lot of 30-40-somethings is itching to get its hands on the levers.

The 1984 crew were born in or not long after the second world war. As young adults in the 1960s they challenged their parents’ desire for order, security and prosperity and pursued personal and social freedom. In power in the 1980s they extended that push for freedom into economic and foreign policy. read more

New Zealanders, Bill English says, are “not brittle. They are resilient. They will do what has to be done.”

And what does he think has to be done? Weather the credit freeze. “By winter next year we will still be talking about the credit crisis.”

Compare 2005. At this point in the 2005 election campaign National and Labour were arguing about how to spend a huge budget surplus. John Key produced fiscal numbers which he said justified milk and honey for every taxpayer, with plenty left to bankroll the health and education systems. read more

Much of politics is conducted in two worlds: fors and againsts. But politics often also divides between a small world and a big world.

Example: Winston Peters. The great majority won’t have a bar of him, especially since the Glenn/Jones shenanigans. But for a small number he is the bee’s knees. read more

What would you do if you were running the central bank for the world’s biggest economy and you saw “irrational exuberance” in the financial markets?

Your answer is right at hand. You have read Milton Friedman and you would worry that the exuberance might be evidence of too much money which is bad for inflation and for economic stability. So you would tighten the screws so the exuberant irrationalists could do less damage. read more

The important issue in the donations stink is not the looming end to Winston Peters’ sinuous career. It is the looming end of New Zealand First.

We can now be nearly sure Peters won’t be a minister after the election even if he manages to cling to his warrant before the election.

One never says die of Peters. Remember him walking up to the podium to concede Tauranga in 1999, only to hear as he walked that he had won by a sliver. read more

Trivial haggling over trading in peas and beans, leather wallets and even sea water prodded politicians into CER, the closer economic relationship with Australia, 25 years ago. Now the haggling is over complex and often obscure regulatory matters to make a single economic market (SEM). There is plenty to keep them going another 25 years. read more

The National party wants the emissions trading bill passed but is voting against it. Does that make sense to you?

The government is ramming through the bill with late changes so numerous it is near-impossible to work out what it actually says and with minimal guide for those who try. We can be sure it is riddled with errors. Does that make sense to you? read more