The economy — so far — is refusing to lie down to order for a National win in 2008.
Of course, there are plenty of economic numbers to give Don Brash, Bill English and John Key reason to think that households will start to hurt later this year and thus that the polls will shift their way and build a lead too long for Helen Clark, Michael Cullen and Phil Goff to claw back.
Is John Key a radical? Sometimes he sounds as if he is. But radicalism is not a recipe for a long spell in government. So the John Key you mostly get is non-threateningly middle-ground.
This dual political personality will be on show today at the National party’s northern regional conference.
With the troops over coffee and muffins Key will be the extraordinary ordinary man, star attraction but also easygoing and superapproachable — the magic elixir of major party political leadership.
If today you are tempted to celebrate war, scan Alan Marriott’s little book, Mud Beneath My Boots.
This matter-of-fact account of life and death at the front in the first world war by an rank-and-file participant reminds that for at least the past 150 years war has been a rotten experience for all but a few (notably Adolf Hitler) of those condemned to do the fighting.
A book review for the NZ Herald Perspectives book page 21 April 2006
Political Leadership in New Zealand
Edited by Raymond Miller and Michael Mintrom
Auckland University Press, 262pp, ISBN 1-86940-358-4
[This is the full version. The Herald published a severely truncated version.]
Do you agree that “political leaders are created, maintained and brought down by the media”? Or do you think you might have a say? And that intrinsic abilities and values might be ingredients, too?
In 1999 at Seattle anti-globalists began to proclaim imminent counter-revolution as the World Trade Organisation trade liberalisation talks collapsed.
In 2003 at Cancun their triumphalism waxed when the G20 (“group of 20”) less-developed nations stymied cynical big-economy manoeuvrings.
Books were written, by John Ralston Saul among others, pronouncing globalisation dead and nationalism resurgent.
Christian religion does not intrude much on most people’s daily lives these days — except to furnish holidays.
Of course, by inheritance and long custom this society is at some deep level judaeo-christian. The latter five of the 10 commandments underlie, however weakly, our social code and the golden rule frames it.
Immigration Minister David Cunliffe framed his proposed new legal framework last week against the Prime Minister’s three priorities, economic transformation, prosperous and secure families and a “strong national identity”. The last has deep importance.
National identity asks: “Who is the nation?” And it asks: “To what values must a person subscribe to be part of the nation?”
Loud, long and legal. That is one business encapsulation of what needs to follow the carbon tax (R.I.P.). If so, business could usefully get in at the design phase.
The point for business to grasp, especially in grumpy Auckland, is that international politics and international business are embedding climate change as a policy threat. Something will fill the carbon tax hole.
Do you think the Greens are optimistic or pessimistic? This question is relevant because pessimists are more likely to be problems than solutions.
The Greens habitually tell us we are unregenerate consumers of our children’s and their children’s futures. We are killing the planet. One climate change website (not run by the Greens) calls itself “ark”, as if we need rescuing from ourselves.
From what you hear through the noise of political argument, what would you say the National party stands for?
Lots lower taxes. Lots more hospital operations. Lots of choice of school. Lots and lots more roads, some private. Lots more prisoners in lots more prisons for a lot longer. Lots faster resource consents (except when farmers object). Lots less political correctness, especially for iwi (versus Kiwi).