Category: Pre-ODT Columns

Winston Peters and John Tamihere have both been talked up as the first Maori Prime Minister and both will not be. That is not all they share.

Both are self-made politically, too idiosyncratic and prideful to fit comfortably into the parties that brought them into Parliament.

Both ooze charm and flash charisma, with personal constituencies beyond those of their parties. Peters reached out from National in the late 1980s to many in Labour’s core vote. Tamihere touches many in National’s core vote. They both have Maori and non-Maori followers. read more

In the latest issue of the New York Review of Books there is a chart of polls of 34,000 people in 30 countries of opinion on the United States presidential election on November 2. Only three are coloured red for President George Bush.

For Bush are Poland, the Philippines and Nigeria. India and Thailand are evenly balanced. The rest are blue, most very blue, for John Kerry. read more

If John Tamihere departs he will be a loss not just to the cabinet and the Labour party but to the nation — not for what he is but for something important he has represented.

Tamihere — flawed, volatile, passionate, angry, good fun, impulsive and modern — is at the cusp of a shift in Maori priorities which may not really start to show through for years yet. read more

It’s good news and bad news from the Australian election: mostly good for Helen Clark and mostly bad for Don Brash.

John Howard’s resounding fourth term win on Saturday was a reflection in part of the advantage of incumbency when the economy feels buoyant at the household level. Which, if there are no big shocks, should be the case here when Clark faces voters next year. read more

The National party is trying to work out how to use welfare as a big hit in its bid to lead the next government. But is there really a big hit in there?

Don Brash favours lifetime limits on the unemployment benefit. The more worldly Katherine Rich, the social welfare spokesperson, is more flexible.

Rich and ACT’s Muriel Newman want to go the Wisconsin route: get beneficiaries into jobs. But to do that properly, Wisconsin found and both acknowledge, is not a cheap option, which is not good news for tax-cutters in both parties. read more

Astrid Andersen had her life damaged by misguided police, a misguided judge and a misguided jury, all serving a misguided society.

The issue is risk. We are a society that wishes to abolish risk and attendant mishaps. When risk turns to mishap, we look for someone to blame.

In the United States that blame is applied through tort actions in civil courts. Here the ACC system all but closes that avenue for accidents. So there is a temptation to turn to the criminal courts. read more

The Labour party has learnt that it cannot lock New Zealand industry away from the world as it once thought. Now it may be learning it can’t lock up the conservation estate. It is too valuable an economic resource.

Earlier this week Conservation Minister Chris Carter said on radio that he was trying to speed up the processing of concessions for tourism and recreation ventures on the conservation estate, up 350 since 2000. But tourism is only part of what might over time become a bigger story. read more

The next Governor-General will be white and male. Why?

Balance, of course after two women and one Maori among the past four. But, more important politically, it will be a conservative gesture from a government seeking re-election no more than a year from now.

First, the government wants to de-fang a potential killer, “political correctness” — that is, being thought to be out of step with majority instincts, too socially liberal or “academic” on law and order and a raft of other social policies and too eager to promote minority interests, such as of republicans, unions, homosexuals and Maoris. read more

Here are two bits of advice. Do not go to Indonesia unless it is essential because you might get caught up in a bombing. Do not go to Indonesia because bombers are targeting your country.

The first applies to New Zealanders, the second to Australians. The Australian embassy in Jakarta has been attacked. The New Zealand embassy is unlikely to be attacked unless as collateral. read more

Such a beast as United Future is surely not to be found in nature: part liberal centrist and part evangelical Christian; generally right-leaning on moral and economic issues but keeping in office a leftish, moral-liberal government.

Who in the congregations of the churches behind the conservative half of United Future would have stood by a government which has promoted the legalisation of prostitution and, in all but name, the marriage of gays? read more